عنوان مقاله [English]
Climate change is one of the natural occurrences that cause temperature rise, reduced rainfalls, change in water balance, decline in production level, and frequent droughts. Therefore, predicting and evaluating the effects of climate change and drought could be very effective for future decision making. According to this approach, in this study, the effects of climate change and drought on cropping pattern and income risk effects in Qazvin plain were investigated. The LARS-WG model was used to simulate climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the future, as well as their changes in the A1B, A2 and B1 climate scenarios. Also, the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to determine drought periods and water volume changes. Then, using the mathematical programming approach and compilation of the MOTAD-TARGET with PMP model, the cropping pattern was simulated in climate scenarios and drought periods and the risk effects of these scenarios were investigated. The results show that in all three climate scenarios, temperature increases and precipitation decreases, and cropping pattern changes toward crops with higher income stability. In drought scenario, due to reduced water volume, the cropping pattern tends to crops with less water requirements, and crops with higher income levels have less changes. Income risk, in the worst drought scenario (very severe drought) and climate change (scenario A2 during the period 2040-2049), would decrease by 68.1% and 6.377%, respectively. By reducing the income risk, the gross margin will be reduced. Considering the economic effects of climate change and drought in long-term, it is recommended to use drought and heat resistant varieties. Also, the area under cultivation of crops such as barley, corn, sugar beet, and tomato may be increased as they have a more stable income.